SEAHA student Scott Allan Orr has published the paper ‘Wind-driven rain and future risk to built heritage in the United Kingdom: novel metrics for characterising rain spells‘ in the journal Science of the Total Environment.
Wind-driven rain is a prominent environmental risk to built heritage, but while predicted climate changes are well established, it is uncertain how this will manifest in wind-driven rain. In the paper, Orr and his co-authors combine weather generator predictions with a probabilistic process to create a time series of climate parameters under a high-emissions scenario for 2070-2099 at eight UK sites. They predict that in the late twenty-first century, rain spells will have higher volumes thus impacting façades across all 8 sites and that damage to buildings will occur more frequently. As such new metrics for wind-driven must be develop to manage future impacts.
Scott Allan Orr is a SEAHA student based at the School of Geography and Environment at the University of Oxford. Supported by Historic Environment Scotland and Consarc Design Group, his research assesses exposure and response of historic stone masonry to wind-driven rain, using climate models and non-destructive testing.